Probability Analysis: Tools for SPY Options Trading

Hover over any point on the chart to see the probability of expiring above that strike price!

Expected Move Formula

\( EM = S \times \sigma \times std \times \sqrt{\tfrac{DTE}{365}} \)

SPY Expected Move

Expiration Nov 17 (3D) Nov 18 (4D) Nov 19 (5D) Nov 20 (6D) Nov 21 (7D) Nov 24 (10D) Nov 25 (11D) Nov 26 (12D) Nov 27 (13D) Nov 28 (14D) Dec 05 (21D) Dec 12 (28D) Dec 19 (35D) Dec 26 (42D)
lower 659.85 657.981 656.335 654.847 653.478 649.875 648.799 647.77 646.784 645.835 639.97 635.025 630.67 626.731
upper 684.01 685.879 687.525 689.013 690.382 693.985 695.061 696.09 697.076 698.025 703.89 708.835 713.19 717.129
expected move 12.08 13.949 15.595 17.083 18.452 22.055 23.131 24.16 25.146 26.095 31.96 36.905 41.26 45.199
Nianguang Zhao '25G, Master's in Financial Engineering at Lehigh University | Aspiring Quant | Cleared CFA Level 1
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